Turkey must first of all reduce the threats it is facing from two fronts to one. The answer to the threat coming from Cyprus from the United States and Israel is in the north of Iraq and Syria. There, Turkey has a chance to find a permanent and secure solution. For this reason, we must take a decisive step towards a cooperation with Syria on all areas including the military. The link that will connect us with all the countries in the region is Syria. Everyone will trust us when we reach out to Syria. We need that trust not only in northern Iraq but in the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean fronts as well.
Warning signs are intensifying about the threats to Turkey from Cyprus and the Aegean. These warnings are very timely and important. But there is a confusion in the minds of some about how to answer these threats that are coming from Cyprus and the Aegean.
What comes first to mind? Even a12-year-old child would think that one would respond to the threats that come from Cyprus and the Aegean those very places.
JOINT MILITARY MANOEUVRES OF ISRAEL AND THE SOUTH CYPRUS GREEK GOVERNMENT
In fact, one must look at these threats as a strategic question. The threat against Turkey is arching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Oman Sea. There are military challenges, confrontations and preparations all along this front. For example, the joint military manoeuvres of the South Cyprus Greek Government and Israel are strong warnings for us. However, the Turkish public has overlooked this. Luckily, Rear Admiral Soner Polat, Deputy head of the Vatan Partisi (Patriotic Party) wrote about this the other day in Aydınlık (a daily newpaper associated with Vatan Partisi) and provided this information.
ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF A BROAD FRONT
Turkey is being threatened by a force of arms from the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean. The aim is to defeat Turkey in northernIraq. Keeping Turkey out of the energy routes is one of the mainstrategic considerations behind the US and Israeli political manouverings. While the EasternMediterranean energy resources are being divvied up,the threats against Turkey from Cyprus and the Aegean are being intensified. The Southern Cyprus Greek Goverment and Greece appearas the powers that are used against Turkey in this arena.
In such a situation, we cannot confront each threat separately. There is no isolated solution in Cyprus or in the North of Iraq. The struggle is in the whole front and the victory will be won on the whole front.
The main areas of threat, starting from the Eastern Mediterranean, can be identified as
The US-Israeli corridor in the north of Syria.
The so called “Kurdistan” venturein the north of Iraq.
The threat to Qatar.
PKK and FETO terror groups supported by the United States and Israel in the home front.
The front is very broad and, because of this, we face many problems. On the other hand, because the front is broad Turkey has gained new allies.
CENTER OF GRAVITY
First, we must correctly establish where the centre of the front lies. The aim of the United States and Israel is to establish a second Israel, in other words the establishment of the so called “Kurdistan”. For this reason, the centre of gravity of the front right now is the north of Iraq. Other wings of the front and centres of focus are the Aegean and Cyprus as well as Qatar.
HOWTO REDUCE THE TWO FRONTS TO ONE
Turkey is being threatened by war on two fronts. If you count the Aegean and Cyprus separately, the fronts will increase to three.
The power confronting us does not only compromise PKK, Barzanistan, the Southern Cyprus Greek Government and Greece. If that were the case, we would not consider it a threat. The real major power confronting us is, the United States and Israel. The fact that the Southern Cyprus Greek Government is a member of the European Union is a factor to be considered as well. We should not forget that the United States military war game exercises of invading Turkey-- called “Millennium Challenge 2002” -- originated from the conflict in Cyprus.
Looked at from a wider angle, the fact that Turkey is facing conflict on two fronts entails many difficulties. The priority of our strategy should be to reduce the two fronts to one.
THE FRONT IN WHICH WE HAVE THE UPPERHAND
Turkey seems to have the upper hand at the northern Iraq front. There we have an accumulation of allies to confront the United States and Israel.The United States is losing its power rapidly in the west of Asia. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Iran and Qatar are in the region and those countries who support them from outside are defending their own countries against the United States and Israel. Russia is one of those countries in this front. This alliance has supporters behind the frontline from China to Germany.
Turkey is the key country in the north of Iraq and north of Syria. When we reach out our hand to Syria, this front will be united. When we do this, we will have more than sufficient conditions to confront the threat from the so called “Kurdistan”.
In the Aegean and Cyprus, we could come head to head militarily with the United States and Israel. We must especially take into consideration the sea power of these countries. However, we have a wide alliance in the north of Iraq and in Syria. That is the front where we have the upper hand. That is the front in which we can foil the United States-Israel strategy. That is where we must act rapidly. If we do not act and just watch the “Kurdistan” referendum and not quickly bring together an alliance to foil this, we will not be able to achieve a solution on that front which could be sustainable. If we do this, Turkey will be left with a single front to deal with in Cyprus and the Aegean and we can always reinforce that front. This will give us the opportunity to form a balance of power to protect our vital interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.
OUR PATRIOTIC DUTY IS TO FORM A COOPERATION WITH SYRIA
The first step, in these circumstances, to lower the threat from two fronts to one is to form a cooperation with Syria. For the Turkish government to reach its hand out to Syria is a patriotic duty. Without any doubt, it had also been a patriotic duty before, but now it is a duty which cannot be postponed any longer. The hand we hold out to Syria will be a hand reached out to Lebanon, Iran, Iraq and Russia as well. We need to form an active alliance with these countries and that will be the best response to the threats we face from two fronts.
ANSWER TO THE PLAN OF THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL TO PRESSURE TURKEY FROM CYPRUS IN ORDER TO DEFEAT TURKEY IN NORTH IRAQ
In order for Turkey to stand tall in the Aegean and Cyprus it is not an urgent priority now to reinforce this front. What we need is to overcome our weakness at the diplomatic negotiation table in the Aegean and Cyprus. It is not very intelligent to join meetings the agenda of which includes Enosis. We should not make any compromises which will hinder us in the future. For this reason, we do not need to reinforce the Cyprus front but we need to think strategically. By keeping the balance of power in the Aegean and Cyprus we can return to the main front from which the threat is coming, i. e northern Iraq and Syria.
If we could gather together an alliance to foil the United States and Israel’s plan in Kurdistan we will have the strongest answer to the threat coming from Cyprus and the Aegean. We are going to force those who are waiting to ambush Turkey in the region to choose between respecting the interest of Turkey or engaging in adventures. We can expect that Greece and the Southern Cyprus Greek Government will consider the lessons from history and the balance of power and act accordingly.
For all these reasons, the answer to the threat that is coming from Cyprus and the Aegean does not primarily lie in Cyprus and the Aegean per se but in the north of Syria and Iraq. Our answer to the threats posed by the United States and Israel on two fronts is to cooperate with Syria in all areas including the military. The link that is going to connect us with all the countries in the region and Russia is Syria. Everyone will trust us when they see our friendship with Syria. And this trust is needed not only in northern Iraq but also in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean.